Microclimate map · Red Wing, Cannon Falls, Welch, Frontenac, Bay City, Maiden Rock

Fruit Trees for Red Wing, Cannon Falls and the Mississippi Bluffs, Minnesota

On January 18, 1967, NOAA's Theilman valley station hit −44°F; in the same cold snap Hastings Dam 2, on the Mississippi, bottomed at −28°F. Here's where the cold settles from the Cannon Valley to Lake Pepin, and which fruit trees come through it.

On January 18, 1967, NOAA's Theilman station, in the narrow Zumbro valley just past the edge of this map, read −44°F. In the same cold snap the station at Hastings Dam 2, on the Mississippi at the north edge, bottomed out at −28°F. That's what you're working with when you pick fruit trees for Red Wing, Cannon Falls and the Mississippi Bluffs: a river trench cut 400 to 500 feet below a rolling upland, and creek valleys between them that move the cold around on still nights.

The map covers Red Wing, Cannon Falls and the Cannon Valley, the Goodhue County upland around Hay Creek, Goodhue and Bellechester, Frontenac and Wacouta at the head of Lake Pepin, the Dakota County corner around Miesville and Vermillion, and the Pierce County, Wisconsin side from Diamond Bluff to Bay City and Maiden Rock. Red Wing sits at the northern edge of the Driftless Area, where southeast Minnesota meets west-central Wisconsin. Type your address in the box on the map to get the number for your own place, and the list of what we sell that has come through it.

How to read this map

The big number is the 30-year planning low, the same number our cold hardiness calculator uses (NOAA station records since the 1995-96 winter), plus a small nudge for the ground right around you. It's a safe number to plan around, not the record and not a promise of how often it comes. The MFTC zone is that number in half zones. The typical winter is an average year's coldest night, the kind of number USDA's zones are built on. The spring layer shows how much warmer or colder a spot runs than Red Wing on a still, clear night at bloom.

Red Wing, the reference town, plans for −34°F, MFTC zone 3b, with a typical winter of −20°F. The middle of the growing ground plans for −34°F too, and half of it falls between −36°F and −33°F. The warm end, −32°F to −33°F, is mostly ground well above its local floor: Oakridge on the Wisconsin bluff top, Snows Corner, the Grand View slope west of Red Wing and the bench at Vasa. The cold end, −37°F to −38°F, is Belvidere Mills in its side valley, the hollows at White Willow, Claybank and Bellechester, and the river bottoms at North Red Wing and Stroms.

Both NOAA stations inside the map have come close to their numbers. The river station at Red Wing Dam 3 bottomed at −36°F in the 1995-96 winter, and the map plans for −37°F at its spot, a degree colder than anything it has recorded since 1995. The Red Wing airport station read −35°F that winter, a degree colder than the map's −34°F there. For trees you'd hate to lose, pick ones that have come through −40°F.

Why the map looks the way it does

Most of this end of Goodhue County is a loess-capped plateau, 1,100 to 1,190 feet around Goodhue, Bellechester, Oak Center and Hader, that the Minnesota DNR calls the Blufflands: rolling fields on top, then gullies and creek valleys cut 400 to 500 feet down to the Mississippi, whose pool and backwater bottoms sit at 676 to 692 feet. Barn Bluff stands about 400 feet over downtown Red Wing. In between run the Cannon (through a gorge with bluffs up to 300 feet below Cannon Falls), the Little Cannon, Hay Creek, Belle Creek and the Vermillion. On a still, clear night every open field cools as it radiates to the sky, the cold slides into those valleys and follows them down, and the floors make more of their own on top of what arrives.

The winter number leans mostly on station records, and the cold records here come from the narrow valleys. Zumbrota, in the North Fork Zumbro valley just south of the map, holds the coldest reading on file anywhere near it, −45°F on January 30, 1951. Theilman ran 4°F colder than the Red Wing Dam 3 station in the January 1970 and 1994 cold snaps and 7°F colder in 2009 and 2019, and in January 1963 it hit −39°F while Ellsworth, on the open Wisconsin upland at 1,030 feet, bottomed at −24°F. Neither river station has a reading colder than −36°F on file. So the southern upland nearest Zumbrota plans colder than Red Wing despite sitting nearly 400 feet higher (Goodhue −36°F, Bellechester −37°F, White Willow −38°F). Those villages sit 0 to 40 feet above their own local floors, so they collect what the fields around them make.

Those gaps open on the worst nights. Over the years they share, no two long-record stations here differ by a median 3°F or more on the year's coldest night, and when arctic air comes in deep enough to fill everything the gaps close: in the February 1996 cold snap Zumbrota, Rosemount and Ellsworth read −37°F and both dam stations −36°F. Where the stations really part ways is the season. The two dam stations, right on the river, get a median 172 and 174 frost-free days; Zumbrota gets 147, Ellsworth 144 and Theilman 142. Those river numbers fit stations beside open, moving water that gives back heat on spring and fall nights, but they belong to the water's edge. A backwater flat or the foot of a bluff is still the floor of a 400-foot trench.

Above the floor sits the thermal belt. Within 3 miles of Red Wing the floor plans for a median −37°F and the benches and slopes 100 to 700 feet up for −33°F, and a similar 4°F to 5°F split shows at Frontenac, Wacouta, Bay City, Hager City, Trenton and Maiden Rock; on the southern upland and around Cannon Falls it's about 3°F. Oakridge, 440 feet above its floor, plans for −32°F. That fits what researchers found over 69 clear, calm nights in a Hungarian valley, where the floor averaged 6.7°F colder than a slope 230 feet higher. The winter number takes the fine-scale terrain pattern at only a quarter strength, since in our station tests it didn't sharpen the number at ordinary sites; stations rarely sit in draws or thermal belts, so the split there is unproven either way.

Lake Pepin, about 22 miles long and up to 2 miles wide, averages only 21 feet deep, and it freezes: the Corps of Engineers measured an average 20 inches of ice on February 26, 2025. A lake shelters its shore only while it's relatively free of ice (the Wisconsin State Climatology Office's words), so the map gives the Pepin shore no big-lake warmth, and Frontenac, Bay City and Maiden Rock plan like the floors they sit on. Open water hangs on near Red Wing all winter, enough to draw bald eagles, but that's moving river. The ice goes out around March 31 in a median year, and Pepin Heights, Minnesota's largest orchard, on a bluff above the lake near Lake City, credited it with "a critical degree or two" in the April 2012 freeze. The spring layer doesn't add that in.

The Blufflands are about half woodland, and a dense stand across the bottom of a slope dams cold air above it, so clear the brush below your trees, not above them. Prairie once held the hot, dry south and southwest faces; a south face pulls bloom early, into frost season, and its trunks take the most winter sun, so paint them. Our friend Bob Purvis calls an east face ideal, since it warms fast on a frosty morning and stays cooler on hot afternoons.

Red Wing: the terrace, the bluffs and the river flats

Downtown is the riverfront core along Levee Park, with Barn Bluff on the east side and the old Pottery District near Bay Point Park. The Residential Historic District, southwest of the business district, sits on a sloping glacial terrace with the bluffs along its south edge, and the West End runs on past it. Sorin's Bluff (Memorial Park) rises above East Seventh Street. North Red Wing and Pucketville are on the river flats, and Prairie Island, inside the city limits, is floodplain.

The center of town, 60 feet above the floor, plans for −34°F, zone 3b, with a typical winter of −20°F. Within 3 miles the coldest tenth of the growing ground plans for −38°F and the warmest tenth for −33°F. North Red Wing, 10 feet above its floor, plans for −37°F, zone 3a, and reads 5°F colder than Red Wing at bloom; Pucketville plans for −35°F and reads 5°F colder too. Up the slopes it turns around. Pepin Woods, 140 feet up, reads 4°F warmer at bloom, and Grand View, 200 feet up a steep slope west of town, plans for −33°F and reads 9°F warmer, the best spring reading of any named place.

On the terrace and bluff slopes, plant anything that has come through −35°F: Lapins and Gold sweet cherries (the hardiest we've found), Superior and Italian plums, Bartlett pear, Westcot apricot and Siberian C peach (very late ripening, so give it your longest-season spot). Put the apricot and cherries highest, since they bloom first. Contender peach and Rainier cherry, both −30°F on our list, are worth a try against a south wall. On the North Red Wing flats, stick to apples like Haralson, honeyberry and Montana Black Currant, which we've never seen winter damage on.

Cannon Falls, Vasa and the Cannon gorge to Welch

Cannon Falls sits where the Little Cannon joins the Cannon, with Lake Byllesby, a 1,432-acre reservoir, just west of town (don't count on a reservoir for warmth). Downtown, 20 feet above the floor, plans for −36°F, zone 3a, with a typical winter of −21°F, and reads 1°F colder than Red Wing at bloom. The floor within 3 miles plans for the same −36°F and the slopes and benches for −33°F, so climbing out of the bottom is worth 3°F. Vasa, on a bench 110 feet up at 1,047 feet, plans for −33°F and reads 1°F warmer than Red Wing at bloom. Toward Sogn, where Cannon River Winery grows grapes on the south-facing slopes of the Sogn Valley, the hamlet plans for −37°F.

Below town the Cannon runs through its gorge, and the Cannon Valley Trail follows it 19.7 miles to Red Wing. Welch, near the Cannon's mouth, sits right on the valley floor, the map reads it as a cold-air drainage channel, and on a still bloom night it runs 9°F colder than Red Wing, though its winter number is −35°F. Where the Vermillion runs down the floodplain toward its mouth near Welch, the bottom plans for −37°F.

At −36°F, plant varieties that have come through −40°F: Honeycrisp and Zestar!® apples, Summercrisp pear on the slopes, Toka plum and Meteor tart cherry. Cannon River Winery's u-pick table grapes include Somerset Seedless and Bluebell, both −40°F on our list. Lapins and Siberian C fit the benches. In Welch, keep to apples, haskap and Boyne raspberries.

Frontenac, Wacouta and the head of Lake Pepin

Below Red Wing the river opens into Lake Pepin, and the Frontenac State Park bluff rises about 430 feet over it. Within 3 miles of Frontenac and Old Frontenac the floor plans for a median −38°F and the benches −33°F. Frontenac, on the floor 40 feet up, plans for −36°F, zone 3a, and reads 5°F colder than Red Wing at bloom. Old Frontenac, 70 feet up and about a mile and a half away, plans for −34°F, zone 3b, and reads even with Red Wing. Wacouta plans for −34°F; the Wacouta Beach hillside, 60 feet up a 15 percent slope, plans for −35°F and reads 5°F warmer; Hansen's Harbor, on the floor by the water, plans for −37°F.

On the floor at Frontenac and Hansen's Harbor, plant apples and Kerr or Trailman applecrabs (if you only plant one tree, make it one of these). On the higher ground at Old Frontenac and Wacouta Beach, add Superior plum, Bartlett pear, Lapins cherry and Westcot apricot. Down the lake at Lake City, Pepin or Wabasha, the Rochester and Winona map covers you.

The Wisconsin side: Hager City, Bay City and Maiden Rock

Across the river in Pierce County, along the Great River Road, the river towns sit low. Diamond Bluff plans for −35°F and reads 3°F colder than Red Wing at bloom, Hager City −35°F and 7°F colder, Bay City −36°F and 6°F colder; around each, the floor plans for about −37°F and the benches −33°F. Trenton, across from Red Wing on a hillside 100 feet up, plans for −36°F but reads 8°F warmer at bloom. Maiden Rock plans for −35°F and has the coldest spring reading of any named place, 10°F colder than Red Wing. It sits 20 feet above the floor at the foot of the bluffs, and the numbers fit a spot where cold from the creek valleys behind it runs out onto the shore.

Up top is the best fruit ground on this side. The bluff tops around Maiden Rock are flat and were settled as good farmland. Oakridge, 440 feet above its floor, plans for −32°F, zone 3b, and reads 7°F warmer than Red Wing at bloom; Salem, 240 feet up, plans for −34°F and reads 6°F warmer. Swede Pickings, on the bluffs over Lake Pepin near Bay City, grows heirloom apples, pears, plums and grapes, and Rush River Produce has grown blueberries on a hilltop near Maiden Rock since about 1987. On the bluff tops, plant Lapins and Black Gold cherries, Westcot and Debbie's Gold apricots, Superior and Italian plums, Seckel pear and our Cold Climate Blueberry Bundle; Contender peach is worth a try at Oakridge.

Goodhue, Bellechester, Hay Creek and the southern upland

Hay Creek, which heads near Goodhue, and Belle Creek have cut their valleys into the plateau south of Red Wing. The hamlet of Hay Creek sits right on its valley floor at 832 feet, plans for −36°F and reads 4°F colder than Red Wing at bloom; within 3 miles the floor plans for −37°F and the slopes −34°F. Belvidere Mills, in its side valley, has the coldest winter number of any named place, −38°F. On top, Goodhue, at 1,118 feet and 20 feet above its floor, plans for −36°F, zone 3a; Bellechester, Belle Creek and Hader −37°F; White Willow −38°F. Even the warmest tenth of the ground within 3 miles of Goodhue and Bellechester plans for −34°F to −35°F. Benches clear of the hollows do better: Belvidere, 130 feet up, plans for −35°F and reads 2°F warmer than Red Wing at bloom, and Oak Center and Wangs plan for −34°F.

On the upland floors, plant Frostbite, Haralson and Honeycrisp apples (all −45°F), Centennial applecrab (Ed Schultz saw zero winter injury on it after a winter that hit −47°F) and Evan's Bali tart cherry. Save Toka and Brookgold plums, Westcot apricot and Bartlett pear for the benches.

Miesville, New Trier and Vermillion

The Dakota County corner is the edge of the St. Paul-Baldwin Plains, moraine and sandy outwash, and the map finds almost no bench ground around Vermillion. Vermillion plans for −34°F, zone 3b, and reads 4°F colder than Red Wing at bloom, with the ground within 3 miles running only −34°F to −32°F. New Trier, 70 feet above its floor, plans for −34°F. Miesville plans for −35°F but reads 8°F colder at bloom, so put apples and bush fruit on its low spots and plums on the rises. If you're in Hastings, Prescott or Rosemount, the Twin Cities map covers you.

Spring frost and bloom from the Cannon Valley to Lake Pepin

NOAA's 1991 to 2020 frost dates split this country cleanly. At Red Wing Dam 3 the median last 32°F comes April 22 and the last 28°F April 12, and 1 year in 10 a 32°F frost comes as late as May 14. Zumbrota's last 32°F comes May 6, and at Ellsworth on the upland and Theilman in the Zumbro valley it's May 12, with the last 28°F around April 28 and 1 year in 10 as late as May 20 to May 22. Lake Pepin's median ice-out, March 31, comes about three weeks before the river station's last 32°F.

On the spring layer, slopes and benches like Grand View, Trenton, Oakridge, Salem and Wacouta Beach read 5°F to 9°F warmer than Red Wing, and the draws, the gorge and the bottoms (Maiden Rock, Welch, Etter, Smith Landing, Miesville) 8°F to 10°F colder. Open blossoms of nearly every tree fruit start dying at about 28°F, and NC State's fruit people say 3°F to 4°F can separate no crop from a full one. On a windy night the pattern flattens out.

On April 9 and 10, 2012, a hard frost hit Minnesota apples blooming unusually early. Some growers lost about 75 percent, while Pepin Heights expected about 80 percent of a crop; around La Crescent, ridge-top orchards expected a nice crop while low-lying ones lost some early bloomers. In 2026 the University of Minnesota's research center near Chaska took two bloom freezes and nearly 80 percent blossom damage. We saw the same pattern in Montana that spring: growers low in the Missoula valley got hit hard, and those up on the benches fared much better.

So put the apricots, peaches, plums and sweet cherries on your highest slope and the apples, haskap and bush fruit lower. Only about 15 percent of apple blossoms need to set for a crop, and open haskap flowers take 19°F. Through bloom, mow short and don't till. The University of Minnesota notes that thermal inversions are less common at most Minnesota orchard sites than elsewhere, so fans only help on radiation nights. Site comes first.

What the weather records say

NOAA station records: Zumbrota −45°F (January 30, 1951, with 110 years on file), Theilman −44°F (January 18, 1967), Ellsworth −40°F (December 19, 1983), Rosemount −38°F (January 9, 1977), and −36°F at both dam stations, Red Wing Dam 3's on January 19, 1970, January 19, 1994 and February 1, 1996. In the January 2019 cold snap Theilman read −41°F, Red Wing Dam 3 −34°F and Hastings Dam 2 −28°F.

The frost-free season runs from 172 and 174 days at the dam stations to 156 at Rosemount and 142 at Theilman. USDA's 2023 map puts Red Wing in zone 4b (4a in 1990) and Hastings in 5a; our zone for Red Wing is 3b, because USDA's comes from the average winter and ours from the bad night we plan for. Red Wing Dam 3's average yearly low is −20°F against its own 30-year number of −36°F. The Wisconsin State Climatology Office finds Pierce County's winter lows have risen about 1°F every 13 years since 1950, but January 2019 still took Theilman to −41°F.

What you can grow here

We zone every plant to the coldest temperature it has come through, so compare that straight to your planning low.

Bluff slopes, benches and Red Wing's terrace: −32°F to −34°F

Apples: Honeycrisp, Zestar!®, Freedom and Hidden Rose. Pears: Bartlett, Seckel and Red d'Anjou. Plums: Superior, Italian and Toka. Cherries: Lapins, Gold and Black Gold. Apricots: Westcot and Debbie's Gold. Peach: Siberian C. Grapes: Marquette and Frontenac (both −35°F). Worth a try, at −30°F: Rainier, Contender and D'Anjou pear on the warmest spots.

Valley floors, toe slopes and river towns: −35°F to −36°F

Apples: Haralson, Honeycrisp, Sweet Sixteen and Malinda. Pears, on the rises only: Summercrisp and Luscious. Plums: Toka and Black Ice. Tart cherries: Meteor and Evan's Bali. Grapes: Brianna, Prairie Star and Valiant. Berries: honeyberry, Red Lake currant and Pixwell gooseberry. Worth a try where bloom reads well (Cannon Falls, Trenton): Lapins and Superior.

River bottoms, side valleys and upland hollows: −37°F to −38°F

Apples: Frostbite, Wealthy and Parkland. Applecrabs: Kerr, Trailman, Centennial and Chestnut. Tart cherry: Evan's Bali. Bush fruit: honeyberry, Montana Black Currant, aronia and Nanking cherry. Keep pears, plums, apricots, peaches and sweet cherries off this ground.

Roots are the weak link. The University of Minnesota's apple and pear bulletin puts root injury on dwarfing rootstocks at soil temperatures of 18°F to 22°F and on hardy seedling roots at about 14°F, so mulch young trees and hold snow over them (4 to 10 inches insulates soil well). It also says to avoid very sandy and heavy alkaline soils. Plant on a 4 to 8 percent slope where cold air won't settle, with at least 6 hours of sun, and taper water from mid-August so trees harden off. Most plums and pears need a pollenizer, a second compatible variety nearby; our pollination maps show which ones pair up.

Local problems: bloom frost (2012, 2016, 2026), hail (May 2, 2012 at a Pepin Heights farm), winter kill of grapes that aren't hardy enough (Alexis Bailly lost many of its French hybrids and has been replacing them with University of Minnesota hybrids), fire blight (the bulletin flags Wealthy and Prairie Spy among the more susceptible), ice storms in the bluff woods, and floods on the Prairie Island floodplain.

Fruit history here

In the spring of 1893, T. E. Perkins of Red Wing planted Malinda seeds, and his seedlings won the American Pomological Society's Wilder Medal in 1903 and first prizes at the Minnesota State Fair through 1911. Nurserymen bought the propagation rights in 1908 and named the best, among them Red Wing (keeps until May), Goodhue (until February), Bayfield and Jumbo, and a 1920s Lake City Nurseries catalog called Perkins "perfectly hardy." Today Frontenac Hills Orchard grows Honeycrisp, Haralson and Honeygold, and Falconer Vineyards grows Prairie Star, La Crescent, Marquette and Frontenac west of Red Wing, in a shallow valley that was once a channel of the Mississippi.

Questions people ask

What hardiness zone is Red Wing, MN?

Red Wing plans for −34°F, MFTC zone 3b, with a typical winter of −20°F. USDA's 2023 map puts it in zone 4b; USDA's zones are based on an average winter, ours on the bad night we plan for. The river bottoms and upland hollows plan for −37°F to −38°F, zone 3a.

When is the last frost in Red Wing?

NOAA station records for 1991 to 2020 put the median last 32°F at Red Wing Dam 3, on the river, on April 22, with 1 year in 10 as late as May 14. On the Wisconsin upland at Ellsworth it's May 12. Low ground back from the river reads colder at bloom, so plan on later frost there.

What fruit trees grow in Red Wing, MN?

Red Wing's terrace and bluff slopes plan for −33°F to −34°F, enough for Honeycrisp apples, Lapins and Gold sweet cherries, Superior and Italian plums, Bartlett pear, Westcot apricot and Siberian C peach. The river flats and side valleys plan for −37°F to −38°F, so stick to apples, applecrabs and bush fruit there.

Does Lake Pepin protect orchards from frost?

A little, in spring, right above the water: in the April 2012 freeze Pepin Heights credited the lake with a critical degree or two and expected about 80 percent of a crop. In winter the lake freezes, so it doesn't warm the shore, and the floor at Frontenac and Bay City plans for −37°F to −38°F.

Can you grow grapes around Cannon Falls and Red Wing?

Yes. Cannon River Winery grows on south-facing slopes in the Sogn Valley, and Falconer Vineyards grows Marquette, La Crescent and Frontenac west of Red Wing. Cannon Falls plans for −36°F, so Brianna, Prairie Star, Somerset Seedless and Bluebell (all −40°F) fit, and Marquette and Frontenac (−35°F) fit the slopes around town, which plan for −33°F.

Where are the frost pockets around Red Wing and Cannon Falls?

On a still bloom night the coldest named places are Maiden Rock (10°F colder than Red Wing), Welch near the mouth of the Cannon, Etter and Smith Landing (9°F) and Miesville (8°F). In winter the coldest are Belvidere Mills and White Willow at −38°F, and the river bottoms at North Red Wing and Stroms plan for −37°F.

Warmer spots, colder spots

Here's the number to plan for at named places on the map, warmest first. Each one is the 1-in-30-year low for that spot: the cold hardiness calculator's number from the same weather stations, sharpened by our microclimate model for the ground right there. Zone is our MFTC zone, set by that one bad night, not by an average.

Runs warmer

    Runs colder

      How this map works

      Every number on this map is a 30-year planning low, the same number our cold hardiness calculator gives. It's built from NOAA station records, leans a little cold on purpose, and gets nudged a degree or two for the ground right around you. The spring frost layer runs our full terrain model, which follows cold air down the draws and into the bottoms. It's a planning number, not a promise: how long the cold lasts, wind, soil and late-winter warm spells matter too.

      The physics of cold air, how the number is built, every terrain weight and the limits of the model are all on one page: how our microclimate maps work.

      The weather stations behind it

      These are the long-record stations in and around this map, with each one's own numbers since the winter of 1995-96. The last column is this map's 30-year number right at the station, which won't match the station exactly: it's a blend of the stations around it, the way the calculator works everywhere.

      Station Elev (ft) Winters Coldest since 1995 Average winter low 1-in-30 low Map here

      Source: NOAA records through ACIS, winters 1995-96 through 2025-26. What the "carried forward," "gaps filled" and AWOS rows mean is explained in how our microclimate maps work.

      Take your spot to the calculator. Click your ground on the map, then open the cold hardiness calculator at that spot. It will show you every plant we grow that has come through that cold.

      Open the cold hardiness calculator
      Terrain: USGS 3D Elevation Program. Land cover: NLCD (MRLC). Station records: NOAA via ACIS. Roads and place names: OpenStreetMap contributors. Model and write-up: Montana Fruit Trees, Missoula, Montana.

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